27 April 2013

Pattaya - Young Players & Ratings Deflation

Ratings deflation is now an accepted phenomenon at the lower end of the fide ratings scale, especially at below 2300. The mechanism for the deflation is driven primarily by promising young players getting a low initial rating, say 1700. When these young players improve to a stage when they can draw or beat higher-rated established older players, these young players take rating points off the established players. The established players would, more often than not, see their ratings drop each time they play in FIDE-rated events although their playing strength is maintained. This is a worldwide phenomenon.

Ratings deflation is now a given. The only debate is just on the speed of the effect now that the FIDE rating floor has finally reached 1000, meaning that we shall be seeing more and more young promising players start with lower and lower initial ratings.

The table below shows this phenomenon at work at the recently concluded Bangkok Open. The table lists junior players who gained 25 or more rating points and their ages.


Name

Ro
TPR
Rtg+
Age

Zhou Jiangnan
CHN
1827
2250
118
13

Liu Yan
CHN
2149
2408
71
13

Mamyrbay Assad
KAZ
1686
2049
50
14
WCM
Atthaworadej Worasuda
THA
1678
1785
49
14

Low Zhen Yu Cyrus
SIN
1670
2004
43
11

Fang Yuxiang
CHN
2141
2359
40
17

Tan Tze Lin Tommy
SIN
1653
2020
40
13

Rohan Ahuja
IND
2031
2300
40
15

Karthik V. Ap
IND
2093
2121
37
14

Rishi Sardana
IND
2232
2443
36
16
WCM
Savant Riya
IND
1913
2138
35
13

Raja Harshit
IND
1831
2052
35
12
WFM
Qiu Mengjie
CHN
2088
2336
34
18
WCM
Tejaswini Sagar
IND
1917
2126
33
13
WIM
Abdumalik Zhansaya
KAZ
2209
2351
27
13

Sonowal Aryan
IND
1437
1603
26
10
FM
Zhao Zhouqiao Chn
CHN
2219
2352
26
19

Ma Zhonghan
CHN
2372
2496
25
18





765


Liu Yan (13 y.o.)
We can deduce from the above table that the main reason our friends from Europe lost ratings in Pattaya was because they were playing underrated young Asian boys and girls. The European players were primarily established adult players with stable ratings. Most affected were those in the 2100 to 2400 rating range who were hard pressed to hold draws against the young Asian players. The stronger IMs and GMs are still alright as they are strong enough to beat the up and coming players. Under the rating system, you cannot lose rating points so long as you win.
Karthik V Ap. (14 y.o.)

Implications
The clear implication is that the path to higher ratings will be like climbing a slippery incline. The slow developing player may find that ratings-wise, one step forward might appear to be followed by two steps backwards. The playing strength required to reach a specific rating will get higher over time.

Older players who has managed to maintain their playing strength will still see their ratings drop as they meet lower-rated younger players who catches up in playing strength.

For IM & GM norm chasers, the standards will be higher as the ratings deflation reaches the 2450 mark, if not already so. My personal view is that there is already a deflation of about 20 points at the 2450 level compared to 10 years ago. This means that the 2450 playing strength 10 years ago that is good enough to net an IM norm at say 6 points, would today be only good for 5.5 points, which is half-a-point short of the IM norm.


Zhansaya Abdumalik (13 y.o.)
(All images courtesy of Jeff Wong)

So what are the implications on the quest to see our 1st Malaysian Grandmaster?








2 comments:

  1. Eddy,

    Perhaps you can do a study of performances of our young players in various age group events - ASEAN+ Age Groups, World Youth, etc.

    I think that MCF would most certainly welcome your report!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Peter, my area of interest is on the problem of getting past the 2200 level and later progressing to IM norms and title and further on to GM norms and title.

    Perhaps there are other persons with interest in Malaysian age-group performances to do analyses that MCF can use.

    ReplyDelete